Sometimes it's lonely being all, the sky is falling, and sometimes I know it's just pieces of plaster. But this must read (and short, and easily understandable) profile of 8 economist/financiers/politicians (which include many many of my faves) and their calls on 2009 encapsulates many of my own beliefs. (HUGE H/T Boston Gal) Some Exerpts:
Nouriel Roubini (he's so hawt and zexy w/ the now short hair)
Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.
For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth.
Sheila Bair (who is worth like 543,230 Paulsons. Hey Obama, where's Bair's job? Or is she so indespensible at FDIC now that you just can't spare her?)
We will dig out of this. And when we do, I hope for a back-to-basics society - where banks and other lending institutions promote real growth and long-term value for the economy, and where American families have rediscovered the peace of mind of financial security achieved through saving and investing wisely. We need to return to the culture of thrift that my mother and her generation learned the hard way through years of hardship and deprivation.
Jimmy Rogers (of Investment Biker fame)
Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities.
I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I'm now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That's the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back.
and finally, Meredith Whitney (whom I would prostrate myself in front of and kiss her toes. Gimme a job? ktksbye.)
What the federal government has done so far- with TARP, bailing out Citigroup, etc. - has stemmed the bleeding, but what it hasn't done is fundamentally alter the landscape. Yes, there's been a tremendous amount of capital thrown into the system, but my concern is that it's just going to plug the holes. It's not going to create new liquidity, which is what the system so desperately needs.
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