This was my favorite LOLZ of the entire campaign, and it reflects one of the main reason that I was so attracted to Obama's candidacy. There is something very appealing (to me) about his drama-free ways.
I'm not a good adherent of the philosophy (as is amply demonstrated in this blog) tho would you believe that in my family, I am easily the most drama-free person around? (Of course, when two of the people in the family happen to be 2 and 4, it's not a hard title to achieve.)
I've been insomniac-ing this economy for the last year (year? It feels longer) and sometimes I feel like I'm on the verge of some sort of depression (not economic, psychological) induced break-down. It's a sad sad thing to go around thinking that you're going to lose it because of the inept handling of the state of the economy (as opposed, say, to being a direct victim of the economy). That is not to say that I won't be even more of a basket case when I lose my job (which likelihood must be somehow inversely proportional to the number of hours of sleep I'm getting a night, n/b that it is nearly 2am as I write this).
But, seriously? We really need to stop basing our decisions on the ups and downs of the friggin' NYSE.
As much as I am loathing Tim Geithner (or as I "affectionately" call him, #timmay, on Twitter), and as little faith as I have in his TARP part the deux (which was revealed today, the sound and the fury, signifying nothing), I am sooooo sick of the "oh, X clearly sux because the market fell Y hundred points today" or the inverse "X rawks because the market gained Y hundred points today".
Now I admit, I have very little at stake in the market. Outside of my 401(k) (the new dismal science), I have almost no equity interest at all. This is partly because I've been dirt poor until 2 years ago (having worked in sweatshops across Asia for most of my adult life) and partly because now that I am a lawyer, I'm apparently conflicted out of being able to be an investor (without going through a most annoying vetting process which I have no patience for).
But haven't we learned ANYTHING from this whole economic disaster thing?
One of the first great wisdoms that came out of my life-guru, Suze Orman, once the gravity of the economic downturn was made clear was that we, as individuals, as investors, as consumers of financial goods, must understand that all those out there who want to take our money or invest our money or lend us money -- why, they are all in it for THEMSELVES. Madoff did it for himself. Thain did it for himself. Paulson did it for himself. Even Obama is doing it for himself.
And the markets? A larger group of self-serving individuals has never before been amassed.
And in fact, that's what makes the markets beautiful. Self-serving individuals will, assuming they're not complete idiots, do the thing that benefits themselves the most. It is... wonderfully predictable. And efficient.
But when you are dealing with government programs, or in this case, a government plan to save the free market, you have this absurd situation where the program should be geared to benefit more people rather than less, but it's being measured by a bunch of completely self-interested individuals who would prefer it to benefit them above all others.
So the market is down almost 400 points? Well, in my world, that means that shareholders are scared that they might be shafted and have to bear some of those losses that are still embedded in the financial sector's books. It means that a bunch of hedge funds who had been betting last week that the Treasury was going to suspend mark-to-market was suddenly confronted with a Geithner who was silent on the subject. It means that a lot of rich folks who thought that they were going to get a free handout suddenly saw much less of a handout in process. I don't know, I'm making this up.
But what it DOESN'T MEAN is that the plan is inherently bad.
Now, the plan may still be inherently bad - that's not my point. I'm just trying to say that the market is not the correct metric to be measuring the worth of a particular government intervention.
So... please.... Chill? Ktksby.
I was just thinking this EXACT thing the other day... after every announcement, MarketWatch alerts pop into my inbox saying "stocks rally after blah blah blah" or "dow slumps in response to...."
There is something to be said for the reaction of the markets to the news of the day. But there is also something to be said for the things going on behind the scenes and the collective consequences of actions from months back just now having an adverse or positive effect on the markets. And then you have the market just being the market and doing its thing.
This is natural. Face it, things are a little nuts out there. So it makes sense that people are looking for a little order.
The financial crisis has also created a new breed of economic savant - completely unqualified individuals who believe that every move the government makes reflects in the market's behavior two hours after the announcement is made. Sadly, these people are employed by the major financial news outlets and having a field day.
You're 1000000% correct.
And you know how much I love to blame things on Obama and Geithner. But *that* perspective is entirely unrelated to the market. Leave the market out of this..........
Posted by: Junior | February 11, 2009 at 06:10 PM